1) Samsung 2010 Semiconductor spending was $11.4B. For 2011 expected to spend $9.2 in Semiconductor and $5.2B in Memory, $3.77B in System LSI. Global demand for DRAM is falling but NAND chip demand is increasing.
http://www.eetimes.com/electronics-news/4212645/Samsung-s-IC-sales-jump--raises-capex-
2) TSMC Expects to spend $7.8 B in 2011, up from the original estimate of $6B. This is supposed to be in response to Global Foundries increasing their Capex.
http://www.eetimes.com/electronics-news/4212612/TSMC-ups-capex--outlook-mixed
Friday, January 28, 2011
Wednesday, January 26, 2011
Foundry Consolidation
1) Consolidation in the foundries. TSMC, Global Foundries, Samsung may be only foundries left by end of 2011.
2) MEMs market to grow 9.5% in 2011. Smart phones are starting to incorporate more MEMs. Iphone 4 used 2 MEM microphone and 1 MEM gyroscope. You now need to meet these levels to compete. In 2010 5 Cell phones had Mems. In 2011 45 tablets and phones will have gyroscopes.
3) UMC expected to spend 1.8 billion in 2011. Much less then Global Foundries at 5.4 (article says 6) and TSMC at 6.
4) Nand Flash to grow 28% from 22 Billion to 29 Billion will grow greater than DRAM.
Capex for Dram will drop 40%. Capex for NAND will grow 85%. This will cause NAND capex to surpass DRAM capex for first time in history. Oversupply not expected until 2012.
5) Rubicon is now offering 300mm Sapphire substrates for LED manufacturing.
Tuesday, January 25, 2011
Industry Consolidation
1) Could customer face a monopoly on critical equipment like Lithography? ASML's current market share of 193-nm immersion is 80% followed by Nikon. Canon has exited leading-edge lithography business. Tool costs for EUV could reach $125 Million per unit.
2) What is EUV?
3) Samsung and Toshiba may be the only tools to survive in the memory industry.
4) Foundaries TSMC, Samsung and GlobalFoundries will be the only ones to build new fabs.
2) Difficult for companies to support the research necessary to move forward.
http://www.eetimes.com/electronics-news/4212266/Is-fab-tool-biz-model-broken--?pageNumber=2
2) What is EUV?
3) Samsung and Toshiba may be the only tools to survive in the memory industry.
4) Foundaries TSMC, Samsung and GlobalFoundries will be the only ones to build new fabs.
2) Difficult for companies to support the research necessary to move forward.
http://www.eetimes.com/electronics-news/4212266/Is-fab-tool-biz-model-broken--?pageNumber=2
Friday, January 14, 2011
Intel Earnings Call
1) Intel 2010 annual earnings call. Revenue was 43.6 Billion up 24% from 2009. Net income was 11.7 Billion. NPAT was 26%. Biggest year ever for Intel. Gross Margin 66%.
Capital spending expected to be 9 Billion for 2011. They will use a four fab strategy rather than traditional 3.
http://www.eetimes.com/electronics-news/4212191/Intel-beats-estimates-on-record-sales
PC Mag
Server demand is driving sales. As the more smart devices come online, the data demanded from the cloud increases. 15 Billion new devices expected. At 6 billion people this is not possible.
Last year there was 245 exabytes of data transfered. More then all the previous years in history combined. In five years that number should grow to 10,000 exabytes. Kilo - Giga - Tera - Peta - Exa. Next comes Zeta.
Windows 7 refresh is only 1/2 way over.
Sandy Bridges for Desktop, Expected 30% of revenue.
1 million PCs shipped / day.
Atom for smart phones / desktop. 37 Million shipped last year
391 Million in 2010 for Atom.
MeeGo will be released in 2H 2011.
Capital spending expected to be 9 Billion for 2011. They will use a four fab strategy rather than traditional 3.
http://www.eetimes.com/electronics-news/4212191/Intel-beats-estimates-on-record-sales
PC Mag
Server demand is driving sales. As the more smart devices come online, the data demanded from the cloud increases. 15 Billion new devices expected. At 6 billion people this is not possible.
Last year there was 245 exabytes of data transfered. More then all the previous years in history combined. In five years that number should grow to 10,000 exabytes. Kilo - Giga - Tera - Peta - Exa. Next comes Zeta.
Windows 7 refresh is only 1/2 way over.
Sandy Bridges for Desktop, Expected 30% of revenue.
1 million PCs shipped / day.
Atom for smart phones / desktop. 37 Million shipped last year
391 Million in 2010 for Atom.
MeeGo will be released in 2H 2011.
Thursday, January 13, 2011
Price comparison of SSDs vs HDD.
1) “The lowest retail price for a 256GB SSD is currently at a 13X premium over a 250GB HDD in 3Q10,” respectively “$520 and $39.99“.
SSD 520/256 = 2$/ Gig
HDD 39.99/250 = $0.16/ Gig
2) HDD shipments are expected reach a total of 662 million units, while SSD shipments will reach 7.2 million units in 2011.
http://enterprise.media.seagate.com/category/ssd/
(Flash vs DRAM)
SSD 520/256 = 2$/ Gig
HDD 39.99/250 = $0.16/ Gig
2) HDD shipments are expected reach a total of 662 million units, while SSD shipments will reach 7.2 million units in 2011.
http://enterprise.media.seagate.com/category/ssd/
(Flash vs DRAM)
PC Shipments SSDs.
1) PC Shipments from Gartner:
93.5 million units in the fourth quarter of 2010, a 3.1 percent increase from the fourth quarter of 2009
For the whole of 2010 PC shipments totaled 350.9 million units. Up 13.8% from 2009.
Top players HP was followed by Acer, Dell, Lenovo and Toshiba in order, respectively.
PC sales in EMEA totaled 32.0 million units, a 6.2 per cent increase from the fourth quarter of 2009. PC shipments reached 110.5 million units in 2010, up 13.3 per cent from 2009. (NA makes up 2/3 of PC sales)
http://www.eetimes.com/electronics-news/4212179/Global-PC-shipments-climbed-3-1--in-4Q10
2) Tablet sales.
Global tablet shipments are expected to more than triple in 2011, rising to 57.6 million units, according to the firm's latest forecast. Apple is expected to retain market dominance with 70.4 market share this year and 61.7 percent in 2012. (15% of market)
http://www.eetimes.com/electronics-news/4212178/Tablet-flood-to-disrupt-display-market-
The HDD market, already reeling from more than 17 million media tablets sold in 2010, (As people switch to tablets with SSD, makers of HDD will be impacted. Does segate have SDD offering?)
3) LONDON – GlobalFoundries Inc., along with EDA and IP partners, has announced the availability of a proven digital design flow for its 28-nm CMOS manufacturing process.
http://www.eetimes.com/electronics-news/4212171/GlobalFoundries-opens-for-28-nm-business
4) Hybrid drives learn what files you commonly access and then cache those files for faster loading.
http://www.infoworld.com/d/storage/seagate-xt-hybrid-drive?page=0,1
5) Samsung and Seagate are partnering to develop SSDs.
http://www.businesswire.com/portal/site/home/permalink/?ndmViewId=news_view&newsId=20100812005329&newsLang=en
93.5 million units in the fourth quarter of 2010, a 3.1 percent increase from the fourth quarter of 2009
For the whole of 2010 PC shipments totaled 350.9 million units. Up 13.8% from 2009.
Top players HP was followed by Acer, Dell, Lenovo and Toshiba in order, respectively.
PC sales in EMEA totaled 32.0 million units, a 6.2 per cent increase from the fourth quarter of 2009. PC shipments reached 110.5 million units in 2010, up 13.3 per cent from 2009. (NA makes up 2/3 of PC sales)
http://www.eetimes.com/electronics-news/4212179/Global-PC-shipments-climbed-3-1--in-4Q10
2) Tablet sales.
Global tablet shipments are expected to more than triple in 2011, rising to 57.6 million units, according to the firm's latest forecast. Apple is expected to retain market dominance with 70.4 market share this year and 61.7 percent in 2012. (15% of market)
http://www.eetimes.com/electronics-news/4212178/Tablet-flood-to-disrupt-display-market-
The HDD market, already reeling from more than 17 million media tablets sold in 2010, (As people switch to tablets with SSD, makers of HDD will be impacted. Does segate have SDD offering?)
3) LONDON – GlobalFoundries Inc., along with EDA and IP partners, has announced the availability of a proven digital design flow for its 28-nm CMOS manufacturing process.
http://www.eetimes.com/electronics-news/4212171/GlobalFoundries-opens-for-28-nm-business
4) Hybrid drives learn what files you commonly access and then cache those files for faster loading.
http://www.infoworld.com/d/storage/seagate-xt-hybrid-drive?page=0,1
5) Samsung and Seagate are partnering to develop SSDs.
http://www.businesswire.com/portal/site/home/permalink/?ndmViewId=news_view&newsId=20100812005329&newsLang=en
Globalfoundires Capital Spending
1) Globalfoundries is doubling spending on capital equipment for 2011. Last year they spent 2.7 billion. This year they plan to spend 5.4 billion. Last year in comparison, Intel spent 5.2 B, Samsung 10B and TSMC spent 5.9B.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-01-10/globalfoundries-to-double-spending-on-plants-equipment-in-2011.html
2) Dirk Meyer is stepping down as CEO from AMD. CFO Thomas Seifert will act as interim CEO. No permanent replacement identified.
http://www.eetimes.com/electronics-news/4212114/AMD-CEO--What-analysts-are-saying
3) Microsoft announced that next version of windows will run on ARM architecture. ARM is made by Qualcom, Nvidia and TI.
http://www.crn.com/news/components-peripherals/229000506/intel-arm-to-challenge-one-anothers-strengths.htm;jsessionid=kHBoW4G334ZeRWLfGVCimA**.ecappj01
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-01-10/globalfoundries-to-double-spending-on-plants-equipment-in-2011.html
2) Dirk Meyer is stepping down as CEO from AMD. CFO Thomas Seifert will act as interim CEO. No permanent replacement identified.
http://www.eetimes.com/electronics-news/4212114/AMD-CEO--What-analysts-are-saying
3) Microsoft announced that next version of windows will run on ARM architecture. ARM is made by Qualcom, Nvidia and TI.
http://www.crn.com/news/components-peripherals/229000506/intel-arm-to-challenge-one-anothers-strengths.htm;jsessionid=kHBoW4G334ZeRWLfGVCimA**.ecappj01
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